The midterms are two weeks away. Markets haven't priced the scenarios yet.
Democrats are favoured to flip the House. Republicans are likely to hold the Senate. Divided government changes what Trump can do on trade, the deficit, and the Iran war. The modal outcome on prediction markets has real consequences for the biggest trades of 2026.
The midterms are two weeks away. Here is what each outcome actually means for markets.
Democrats are favoured to flip the House. Republicans are likely to hold the Senate. A divided Congress changes what Trump can do on trade, the deficit, and the Iran war.
Brazil votes in a week. The Ibovespa is already priced for one outcome.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in every major poll ahead of October 25. All three polls are within the margin of error. The race may be tighter than markets think.
Gold fell below $4,200 this week. The bond market is why.
Gold dropped to $4,171 as the US 10-year yield held near 5.24%. September CPI was due Wednesday. A reading above 3.6% would push the Fed closer to another hike at its October 28 meeting.