Oil is at $94 and the market still thinks this ends cleanly.
Brent crude pushed back toward $94 this week, reversing a dip that came after US officials talked up a deal with Tehran. There is no deal. Shipping through Hormuz is running at half its pre-war volume and Bessent is threatening sanctions that have never been seen before. The consensus is still that this resolves orderly. It might not.
Oil is at $94 and the market still thinks this ends cleanly
Brent crude hit its highest level since late July this week. Shipping through Hormuz is running at less than half its pre-war volume. And somehow the consensus is still that this resolves in an orderly way.
Trump's tariffs were supposed to hurt China. They've made it dominant in ASEAN instead.
New data shows Chinese firms have expanded market share in over 40% of major goods categories globally. In Southeast Asia, two-way trade with China just hit $772 billion. The tariff strategy has a problem.
Bessent says the Iran sanctions will be unlike anything seen before. Tehran has heard that before.
The US has been sanctioning Iran since 1979. A Congressional Research Service report describes them as the most extensive sanctions the US maintains on any country. Iran is still there.